Tigers hope to stop road skid in clash with Red Sox

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers are quickly falling out of contention in the American League Central. Tonight, they try to put the brakes on their 10- game road losing streak when they open a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Detroit started its seven-game road trip in disappointing fashion, as it was swept in a four-game set by the Tampa Bay Rays. The Tigers have now lost six of their last seven and have fallen six games back of the Chicago White Sox in the division.

"We got three out of four really good starts here," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said. "That's what you're looking for, some silver lining, but we obviously have to get more offense."

The 10-game road slide is now just three shy of the franchise-record 13-game drought set back in 1902. A trip to Boston could add to the misery, as the Tigers have lost 22 of their last 30 at Fenway.

Hoping to buck that trend for the Tigers tonight will be righty Armando Galarraga, who is 3-3 with a 4.43 earned run average. Galarraga did not get a decision on Sunday against Toronto, as he allowed three runs and six hits in seven innings of his team's 5-3 loss.

Galarraga, who will be making his first-ever start at Fenway, beat the Red Sox the last time he faced them and is 1-1 in three starts against them with a 4.50 ERA.

Boston, meanwhile, is at the other end of the spectrum, entering this series on the heels of a three-game sweep over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim that culminated with a 7-3 win at Angel Stadium.

Marco Scutaro's eighth-inning grand slam was the difference, while Josh Beckett (2-1) went seven innings in the start and was charged with three runs on five hits with a walk and five strikeouts.

"I had to manifest some energy today," said Beckett. "I felt better today than last time out. I did some good things and made some good adjustments. The most important thing is for our team to win now."

Boston has won five of its last seven.

Heading to the hill for the Red Sox this evening will be lefty Jon Lester, who is 11-5 with a 2.92 ERA, but has lost his last two starts.

Lester was perfect for 5 1/3 frames on Saturday in Seattle before Eric Patterson dropped a fly ball in center field. Lester then served up a two-run homer and he lost his perfect game, his shutout and the game all in short order.

He was charged with five runs (four earned) and four hits in 7 2/3 innings, while striking out 13 batters, absorbing the loss nonetheless.

"That's as good as stuff as we've seen all year," said Red Sox manager Terry Francona of Lester's start. "The outcome is a shame. He pitched better than the linescore will show, for sure. He had a perfect game going for half the game. Then we drop a fly ball and then he hung a breaking ball -- probably the first bad pitch he threw all night."

The last time Lester lost two in a row was in April, and he responded with eight consecutive wins over his next 11 starts.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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