Reds wrap up set in Milwaukee

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After breaking out of an offensive slump last night, the Cincinnati Reds hope to be swinging hot bats for a second straight day when the National League Central co-leaders conclude a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon at Miller Park.

The Reds followed up a shutout loss at Houston on Sunday with a 3-2 setback to the Brewers the following night, but the NL's most productive offense was able to return to its season-long form in Tuesday's second test of this three-game set. Cincinnati racked up 19 hits and knocked out Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo in the third inning en route to a 12-4 rout.

Scott Rolen led the Reds' outburst by going 4-for-4 with three RBI. Fellow NL All-Stars Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto also collected four hits each in the win, with Phillips knocking in a pair of runs, while Ramon Hernandez doubled twice and finished with three RBI on the night.

Most of the damage took place against Gallardo (9-5), who was rocked for six runs (five earned) and 10 hits before being removed after just 2 2/3 innings.

"You can never predict what's going to happen in this game," said Rolen. "We swung the bats well and kind of put the pressure on them. It feels good to even up the series and hopefully we can take it [Wednesday]."

With the Brewers trailing big late, manager Ken Macha decided to have position player Joe Inglett pitch the ninth inning, with the utilityman retiring the side in order.

"It's really the first time I've ever used the position player to pitch," Macha said. "It was interesting. He was throwing 51 (mph) and got them out. When you're starter doesn't get three innings in, that's what happens."

The Reds didn't get much out of their starter either, with Edinson Volquez lasting only 3 2/3 frames and allowing four runs on six hits while issuing four walks. Logan Ondrusek (2-0) then took over and delivered 2 1/3 hitless innings to nail down the win.

Gallardo made more of an impact at the plate, belting a two-run homer off Volquez in the second inning. Rickie Weeks added a solo shot and ended 2-for-4 with two runs scored for Milwaukee, which had a season high-tying five-game win streak halted.

Seeking to get the Brewers back on track will be Chris Narveson, a surprise eight-game winner for the team who's done a serviceable job since being placed in the rotation in late April. The journeyman lefty hasn't had a good July, however, as he's allowed 21 runs (20 innings) over 20 1/3 innings and posted a 1-2 record in four starts this month.

Narveson was sharp in his first outing after the All-Star break, holding NL East-leading Atlanta to two runs in six innings to help Milwaukee to a 6-3 win on July 17. He didn't perform as well in last Friday's matchup with Washington, however, as the visiting Nationals reached him for five runs in a six-inning no-decision.

The 28-year-old gave up two home runs in that start and has surrendered 16 in only 98 2/3 innings of work this season. The Reds, by the way, are ranked second in the NL with 119 homers, a number surpassed only by the Brewers, in addition to topping the Senior Circuit with 496 runs scored.

This will be Narveson's first-ever start against Cincinnati, but he's yielded just one run in a combined four innings in two previous encounters with the Reds in relief.

For Cincinnati, hard-luck rookie Travis Wood takes another stab at an elusive initial victory in the majors when he takes on the Brewers for the first time tonight. The young lefty has made five starts since being promoted from the minors on July 1, but has yet to win despite limiting the opposition to two runs or fewer in three of those games.

Wood wasn't particularly good in his most recent assignment, a six-inning no- decision at Houston on Friday in which he was tagged for four runs on nine hits, but pitched extremely well with nothing to show for it in his two prior starts. He took a perfect game into the ninth inning and finished with nine frames of one-hit, shutout ball at Philadelphia on July 10, then followed up by permitting just one run and three hits through six innings of a loss to Colorado on July 18. The Reds did not score at all in either of the two tilts.

Cincinnati moved into a virtual first-place tie with St. Louis, which lost to the New York Mets on Tuesday, in the NL Central standings and will attempt to maintain its recent mastery of Milwaukee. The Reds have taken seven of the past eight meetings between the clubs and swept a two-game series from the Brewers in Cincinnati from May 17-18.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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