No-brainer for both Phils and Oswalt

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is hard to argue against the Philadelphia Phillies' acquisition of Houston righty Roy Oswalt, especially considering they received some money from the Astros and did not have to exercise his 2012 option.

In fact, it is an absolute no-brainer. I would give up prospects for a proven commodity every day and, unlike Anaheim plucking Dan Haren earlier in the week, this move does make the Phillies the favorites in not only the National League East, but the entire National League.

Plus they gave up nowhere near as much as the Angels had to surrender for Haren. J.A. Happ is not Joe Saunders and nobody Philly surrendered is as touted as Tyler Skaggs, who is going to be the player to be named later in that deal.

Oswalt would have been destroyed had he rejected this deal. I usually blow a gasket when players invoke their no-trade clauses rather than moving from a losing situation to a team in the playoff hunt. Derrek Lee just did it on Wednesday, turning down a deal to the Angels, but I can't get on him too much. He is as classy as they come, he loves playing for the Cubs and he already has a World Series ring with the Florida Marlins (2003).

Lee plays before a packed house at Wrigley Field every night, and while the Cubs aren't going to make the playoffs this year, they spend money and are always an offseason away from competing, particularly in a division that houses the likes of the Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Oswalt, on the other hand, would not have gotten a free pass. Houston has become baseball Siberia. It's clear that Philadelphia was not exactly his top choice, but pairing up with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels was too good a situation for him to turn down.

Would St. Louis have been a better fit for Oswalt? Probably. He seems like more of a St. Louis guy than a Philadelphian, and as a duo I would rather have Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright than Halladay and Hamels pitching with me, but whether Oswalt likes it or not, the Astros were going to explore every road that led them to a deal out of their own division. There is no way Houston GM Ed Wade wanted to face him five times a year.

Oswalt does lead the National League in losses, though the sabermetricians will tell you that wins and losses are not an accurate barometer for a pitcher's success. In this case, I have to agree. Oswalt has pitched to a 3.42 earned run average in 20 starts to go along with a 1.11 WHIP, and has held the opposition to a .229 batting average. Not to mention he has received a total of four runs of support in his last six starts.

Run support is not going to be a problem in Philadelphia. In case you haven't noticed, the Phils have cranked it up at the plate in the last week or so. Heading into action on Wednesday, Philadelphia has won seven straight and now sits just 3 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the division.

If there is anything that I have a problem with regarding the deal, it is that I don't necessarily think starting pitching was a problem for Charlie Manuel's club. It was the bats that put them in a hole. Now that the bats are coming alive again, the only real problem is the back-end bullpen, specifically closer Brad Lidge.

Lidge is an adventure every night. Lately he has been getting out of the jams he has put himself in, but I have no faith in him heading into the stretch run. And the problem is, there really are no other options from within. Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero are both competent, but seem to struggle when taken out of their current roles.

If Cole Hamels and Oswalt can follow Roy Halladay's lead and just throw nine innings every time out it won't be a problem, but we all know that is not going to happen. So either Lidge gets his act together soon, or this move amounts to very little come playoff time.

Of course, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the fact that the Phillies really wouldn't have had a need for a starting pitcher had Ruben Amaro just hung onto Cliff Lee this offseason.

I said at the time the move away from Lee made no sense. I would have non- tendered Joe Blanton and went for it with Halladay, Lee and Hamels. Worry about next year, next year.

Still, I respect Amaro for making this Oswalt move. It is not often that a general manager admits to making a mistake. And make no mistake, he is admitting he was wrong with this move.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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