Johnson, Day share Deutsche Bank lead

Golf Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Norton, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Zach Johnson and Jason Day both fired eight- under 63s to share the lead after the first round of the Deutsche Bank Championship.

With Hurricane Earl bearing down on the Northeast coast, players were able to lift, clean and place their golf balls. There was an 80-minute weather delay when one of the outer rain bands of the storm pounded the course.

The leaders played alongside Ryan Palmer, who carded a seven-under 64. That group combined for 26 birdies and three bogeys.

"It was one of those days that if you get off to a good start it kind of breeds momentum," Johnson explained. "But we all got off to a good start, so it just kind of catapulted our day. We all birdied the first hole, and it fed into the remainder of the day."

Palmer was joined in third place by Charley Hoffman, Rory McIlroy, Ryan Moore, Hunter Mahan, Brian Davis, D.J. Trahan and Geoff Ogilvy, who was minus-eight through 14 holes, but posted two bogeys and a birdie the rest of the way.

Defending champion Steve Stricker opened with a 65 and is tied for 11th.

World No. 1 Tiger Woods bogeyed four of his first five holes, but bounced back with three birdies over his final 11 holes to post one-over 72. That left him tied for 87th in the 99-player field.

"I just didn't have it today," admitted Woods, who won this title in 2006. "I wasn't really doing what I was supposed to be doing out there swing-wise, and then wasn't releasing the putter blade out there and was dragging it a little bit. It was a bad day all around."

Johnson and Day started on the 10th tee Friday at the TPC Boston. Johnson chipped in from over the green, while Day knocked his second shot within tap- in range.

The 34-year-old Johnson came right back with a 30-foot birdie putt on the 11th.

Day rolled in a 12-footer on the 13th to join Johnson at minus-two. Day also birdied the 15th to get to three-under.

Both players converted back-to-back birdie efforts from the 17th. Johnson joined Day at minus-five with a 10-foot birdie putt on the first. At the par- five second, both Johnson and Day got up and down for birdie.

Day followed with a birdie on the third, but he bogeyed the short par-four fourth. The Australian bounced back with a seven-foot birdie putt on the fifth.

Johnson poured in a 28-footer on No. 5 to match Day at minus-seven.

Day traded a bogey for a birdie from the sixth. Johnson was the first to get to minus-eight as he rolled in a six-foot birdie putt at No. 8.

"I probably didn't hit it quite as well as those guys. I hit it fine, I didn't put myself in trouble, but I putted beautifully," said Johnson, who claimed his seventh PGA Tour win earlier this year at the Colonial. "This is probably the easiest the golf course can play, so I'm not taking anything for granted right now. I'm excited about the remainder of the week."

Day sank a 10-footer for birdie on the ninth to join Johnson in the lead after the first round.

"There's a lot of deep scores out there. It was out there today," stated Day, who earned his first tour win at the Byron Nelson the week before Johnson won at Colonial. "I'll probably try and put this round behind me and just focus on the next round and one shot at a time out there."

NOTES: Eighty-three of the 99 players in the field broke par in the opening round...There are 25 players within three strokes of the lead...Day and Johnson have combined to go just 1-for-7 when holding the first-round lead, and that one victory was Day's earlier this year at the Byron Nelson Championship...The top 70 on the FedExCup points list after this event will move on to the BMW Championship.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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