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07/11/2010 -
HOUSTON (AP) -Former Astros All-Star Jeff Bagwell is taking over as Houston's hitting coach after the team fired Sean Berry on Sunday.
Berry became ``a victim of circumstances'' as the Astros' offense has sputtered this season, general manager Ed Wade said. Still, Wade believes the offense can do more and hopes Bagwell can help that happen.
``We know we can get better, but we also know there are players here that should be better and hopefully with a different voice in Jeff Bagwell, they'll recognize the measure of accountability that they have in this whole process so we will get better,'' Wade said.
The move gives Houston hitters a chance to work with one of the most beloved and successful players in franchise history.
In 15 seasons with the Astros, the former first baseman set franchise records with 449 home runs and 1,529 RBIs. Bagwell was the National League rookie of the year in 1991, the NL's most valuable player in 1994 and a four-time All-Star.
Berry, who has been the hitting coach for the past five seasons, was given a chance to remain with the franchise in a development role. He hadn't yet decided if he'll accept that opportunity.
Wade knows great players don't necessarily make good coaches, but believes Bagwell will be successful after what he's shown working with the team as special assistant to the general manager since retiring in 2006.
``He's very levelheaded,'' Wade said. ``He communicates very well, particularly with regard to the nuances of the game. We've seen him have a significant impact on some of our minor league hitters with the information he's able to convey. So he's got the interest and the passion in doing this and we think it's appropriate to give him the opportunity to see if it works or not.''
Bagwell was not in uniform for Sunday's game against the Cardinals and will join the team Thursday in Pittsburgh for a workout before the start of Friday's series with the Pirates.
``Fans love Bagwell so that's the first thing. He's a legend here,'' center fielder Michael Bourn said. ``(He) did a lot of damage here so of course he knows how to hit. So I'm pretty sure he has some (things) he could point out to us and he's probably been seeing some things from up top. So we'll see what it does for us.''
The Astros entered Sunday's game with the second worst batting average in the majors (.237), the worst on-base percentage (.295) and are tied for 28th with just 57 home runs this season. Only Seattle and Pittsburgh have fewer hits than the 691 Houston has managed this year.
Star slugger Lance Berkman entered Sunday's game hitting .252 and cleanup hitter Carlos Lee is batting .238. Each has 12 home runs apiece. Second baseman Jeff Keppinger has the best average in Houston's starting lineup at .279.
Berkman said it stings to know the struggles of the offense cost Berry his job.
``I haven't hit and Carlos hasn't hit like he can and others haven't and it's not Sean's fault,'' Berkman said. ``It's one of those things that when things aren't going well with the players, you have to shake something up and the most expendable pieces a lot of times are the coaching staff.''
Though he was disappointed to see Berry leave, Berkman is looking forward to working with Bagwell.
``Jeff has always been one of my mentors in the game and I'm excited that he's going to be around more,'' Berkman said. ``I told him (Saturday) that he helps me more than anybody even when he's not around just from all the things that he told me during the time that we played together. So it will be great to have him around and have his expertise available.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< Czechs complete Davis Cup quarterfinal win over Chile
Coquimbo, Chile (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ivo Minar won the second reverse singles
match for the Czech Republic on Sunday to complete a 4-1 rout of host Chile in
the Davis Cup quarterfinals.
Minar posted a 7-6 (7-2), 6-2 victory over Cristobal
<< Kuo to replace Heyward at All-Star game
NEW YORK (AP) -Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Hong-Chih Kuo has been selected to replace injured Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward at the All-Star game.Heyward is on the 15-day disabled list because of a deep bone bruise in his left thumb. He wi
<< Royals' Greinke scratched from start
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals scratched reigning
American League Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke from his scheduled start
Sunday against the Chicago White Sox.
The right-hander is experiencing discomfort
<< Astros name Bagwell hitting coach
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros have named Jeff Bagwell
their new hitting coach, replacing the fired Sean Berry.
Bagwell had been serving as a special assistant to the general manager since
his retirement in 2006. He
Dodgers' Kuo to replace Heyward on All-Star team >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Hong-Chih Kuo
has been named as the replacement for Atlanta outfielder Jason Heyward on the
National League All-Star team.
Heyward was a fan-elected starter for the team,
World Cup final scoreless at halftime >>
Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Netherlands and Spain are
scoreless through 45 minutes of the FIFA World Cup final at Soccer City
Stadium on Sunday.
Spain threatened a few times in the early going and nearly
Twins salvage series finale with Tigers >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Cuddyer went 2-for-3 with a two-run
double and scored a run, as the Minnesota Twins defeated the Detroit Tigers,
6-3, in the finale of a three-game series at Comerica Park.
Jason Kubel chipped i
Santana, Mets salvage series, shut out Braves >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johan Santana tossed seven scoreless innings
and Ike Davis supplied a solo home run, as the New York Mets beat Atlanta,
3-0, to salvage the finale of a three-game series at Citi Field.
Santana (7-5) sca
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Super Bowl XLIII is now set, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers will meet each other on February 1st in Tampa's Raymond James Stadium to battle it out for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. The game kicks off at 6:00pm ET on NBC with announcers Al Michaels and John Madden covering the on-field action. Super Bowl XLIII betting odds at online bookmaker MySportsbook.com have the Steelers listed as an early -6.5 against the spread favorite.Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds
Pittsburgh earned their passage to the big game by beating their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens, 23-14 in yesterday's AFC Championship Game. The Steelers jumped on Baltimore early, building a 13-0 first half lead, and never let up on their way to a fairly easy win. Although the Ravens did close to within two points in the fourth quarter, it never appeared as if they had enough offense to pull off the upset.
The Steelers dominating defense held Baltimore to a total of 198 yards while allowing them to convert just three third downs in 13 attempts. Pittsburgh also forced quarterback Joe Flacco into three interceptions, one of which safety Troy Polamalu returned fourty yards for a touchdown.
The Cardinals, by far the playoff team with the longest odds to reach Super Bowl XLIII, did so yesterday with a 32-25 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. Arizona charged out of the gates and built a 24-6 halftime lead that had the Eagles venerable defense reeling. Quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald did most of the damage, connecting on three first half touchdowns.
Arizona, however, could not sustain their momentum and the Eagles took a 25-24 with 10:45 left to play in the fourth. The Cardinals, with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance hanging in the balance, mounted a fourteen play, 72 yard touchdown drive that consumed 7:52 off the clock. Warner hit running back Tim Hightower on a short screen for the go-ahead, game clinching score that will forever live in Cardinal infamy.
MySportsbook.com's Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds:
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-110), Over 46.5 (-110), -260 (Money line)
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110), +220 (Money line)
Matt Foust won both of his conference championship plays yesterday and he is ready to serve up plenty of Super Bowl action. Each individual play costs $15.00, however, MySportsbook.com recommends purchasing Matt's NFL Playoff Package which includes all of Matt's Super Bowl props and picks from just $45.00.
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