AP source: Masoli invited to Ole Miss this weekend

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/30/2010 -

Mississippi coach Houston Nutt has invited former Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli to visit the school this weekend, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press on Friday.

Masoli is expected to decide by Friday morning whether he'll visit Oxford. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because Masoli has not yet enrolled in school.

Masoli was considered a possible Heisman Trophy candidate after a breakout season at Oregon, but coach Chip Kelly kicked him off the team after two brushes with the law in six months.

Nutt said earlier this summer that the Rebels weren't interested in Masoli, but the situation changed when backup quarterback Raymond Cotton left the team last week, just two weeks before the start of preseason practice.

The Rebels lost last season's starter, Jevan Snead, when he decided to skip his senior season and enter the NFL draft. That leaves Ole Miss with just two scholarship quarterbacks - redshirt sophomore Nate Stanley, whose experience came when he played briefly in the Cotton Bowl last January after Snead was injured, and junior college transfer Randall Mackey.

Masoli's been looking for a second chance and a new home this summer. He can play immediately this season under NCAA rules because he has already earned his undergraduate degree, but he must be accepted into graduate school.

Masoli joined the Ducks in 2008 as a fifth-string junior college transfer who was expected to redshirt. But he got a chance to play because of injury and held onto the job. In 2009, he guided the Ducks to their first Pac-10 title since 2001 and their first Rose Bowl since 1995. He threw for 2,147 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushed for 668 yards and 13 touchdowns.

The San Francisco native pleaded guilty in March to misdemeanor second-degree burglary in a plea deal after he was charged with a felony for stealing a pair of laptop computers and a guitar from a fraternity on campus last January. Kelly suspended him for the 2010 season. He was expected to redshirt and Kelly allowed him to practice with the team during spring practice.

Kelly dismissed him from the team after police cited him for possession of less than one ounce of marijuana and driving with a suspended license and failing to stop upon exiting a driveway in June. Masoli entered a guilty plea and paid a $613 fine last week.

The plea may be considered a violation of his probation for the burglary conviction, but it was unclear how Lane County prosecutors would handle the case. Masoli has fulfilled all of his other obligations in connection to that case, his attorney said.

A phone message left with the district attorney's office was not returned.

Nutt and Ole Miss can expect to take criticism if Masoli eventually joins the team. Masoli began repairing his image by launching his own website, www.jeremiahmasoli.net, to tell his side of the story and apologize.

``I made a few very poor decisions in the past year, and I apologize to my family, friends and fans for them,'' a letter on Masoli's home page reads. ``But I am not the person who has been portrayed in many media stories.

``I am not a thief nor a thug. The people who know me best know that is the truth.''

The website features pictures of Masoli, including one of him hugging his grandmother, a biography, career timeline, endorsements by former coaches and others he's close with, a resume and a section entitled media mistakes, detailing inaccuracies Masoli says have been made in stories about him.

Masoli concludes his letter by writing: ``I love playing football and want to continue to play. I'm still trying to figure out where that might be.

``Lastly, I want to thank my family, who I love very much. They have shown great support and forgiveness for the mistakes I made. I do not ever want to let them down again.''

---

AP Sports Writer Anne M. Peterson in Portland, Ore., contributed to this report.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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